What Were The Dodgers Alternatives-

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What Were The Dodgers Alternatives-

Indlægaf jackky » 10. aug 2017, 10:59

On Friday night, the Dodgers made their latest calculated gamble, taking on $260 million in future salaries in the Red Sox in order to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto. In the write-up I did on Friday, I noted that the best way to explain this trade from the Dodgers perspective is they are trying to capitalize on their current contender status underneath the hope that they can achieve a significant revenue bounce from a playoff run that may offset most from the costs of those acquisitions.
Theres another theory floating around, however, that has to do with the upcoming free agent cla s. If we believe that the Dodgers would spend that much money at some point in the long run, the argument is that the relatively unimpre sive number of free agents set hitting the marketplace this winter season made this superior to spending exactly the same cash on free agents in three months and getting inferior players without the added bonus of their production on the stretch this year.
So, lets go through the options, and find salomon Kids Running Shoes out what else the Dodgers might have potentially completed with their giant wad of cash.
First, lets break down the $260 million figure into actual figures, since theres a noticeable difference between giving that cash to 1 player versus four separate players, all of whom needs a salary this year. Heres approximately annual breakdown of exactly what the Dodgers dedicated to pay over the past weekend, let's a sume that the Red Sox are obtaining all of the 2012 salaries and also the Dodgers take presctiption the hook for all of the 2013 and beyond salaries.
2013:
Gonzalez: $21 millionCrawford: $20 millionBeckett: $15.8 millionPunto: $1.5 million
Total: $58.3 million
2014:
Gonzalez: $21 millionCrawford: $20.2 millionBeckett: $15.8 million
Total: $58.5 million
2015:
Gonzalez: $21 millionCrawford: $20.5 million
Total: $41.5 million
2016:
Gonzalez: $21 millionCrawford: $20.8 million
Total: $41.8 million
2017:
Gonzalez: $21.5 millionCrawford: $21 million
Total: $42.5 million
2018:
Gonzalez: $21.5 million
Total: $21.5 million
That adds up to $264 million, which is just slightly above the reported $260 million figure the Dodgers are on the hook for. Its entirely po sible that those reports just rounded down, or the Sox are kicking in $4 million somewhere, but in the grand general scheme of things, it doesnt matter too much. Overall, were taking a look at an expenditure of around between $55-$60 million for the next Salomon Speedcross 4 Women two years, a little over $40 million for the next three, after which just over $20 million in year six.
So, you cant just look at this and say that the Dodgers might have signed three premium free agents this winter season using the $60 million they just spent, because the future commitments drop off significantly after Becketts deal expires. To line this up more with what they were given, we have to e sentially search for two potential long-term deals and something shorter deal, though well give ourselves the freedom to maneuver money around inside the deals to suit other available choices as long as the future commitments emerge similarly.
Lets start with the large bat, since that was the key to this trade from LAs perspective. Could they've gotten something as good as Gonzalez this winter season? In terms of just pure hitting potential, the very best bats (as rated by ZIPS rest-of-season projections) which will hit outdoors market this winter season are:
David Ortiz: .381 wOBAJosh Hamilton: .374 salomon Speedcross 3 Women wOBAKevin Youkilis: .363 wOBALance Berkman: .361 wOBAMike Napoli: .358 wOBANick Swisher: .353 wOBA
For comparison, Gonzalez reaches .357, so his offensive production would fit in comfortably with most from the guys on this list. Ortiz is not a choice since hes strictly a DH, and Berkman is openly talking about retirement, so the truth is, its a choice between Gonzalez and signing certainly one of Hamilton, Youkilis, Napoli, or Swisher. Gonzalez may be the youngest of those five, but hes only six months younger than Napoli, so theres not really a huge difference there. Hes a year younger than Hamilton, 18 months younger than Swisher, and three years younger than Youkilis, who is likely nearing the end of his run being an elite hitter, if he hasnt gotten there already. Given that Youkilis is quite a bit older, well strike him in the list as well, and just concentrate on Hamilton, Napoli, and Swisher as alternative big bat options. How a lot of our budget would each cost?
Hamiltons tricky, because his off-the-field i sues and injury concerns seem prone to limit his future contract, but the talent is such an outrageous card which i dont think anyone can tell what hes going to get. I could see him landing a seven year, $140 million deal this winter, or I saw him settling for 3/70. But, just for arguments sake, lets take the high side from the deal, and say Hamilton would have required 7/140.
We covered Swisher last week, and that i estimated about 5/90 for him, and also the convenience there's he practical knowledge at salomon Speedcross 4 first base, so signing him would directly fill the function that Gonzalez was brought in to fill. Interestingly, when they went cheap around the starter, the Dodgers may have been able to afford both Hamilton and Swisher, so this isnt nece sarily an either/or option here.
Napolis another tough guy to decipher, as hes battled injuries and regre sed to what he was before they got to Texas, and right now doesnt look like the monster bat he would be a year ago. However, if he was moved off catcher full time and just inspired to play first base, theres certainly some thunder in the bat that could result in a return to higher levels of production. He wont get anything near to what Hamilton or Swisher will, I dont imagine, and might have represented the greater frugal option like a big bat first baseman, a suming that the Dodgers could have convinced him to stop catching to start with. Just spitballing, Im penciling Napoli in for 3/36, or somewhere in that range.
On the pitching aspect, the options tend to be more vast, and in the eye of brevity, were not going to go through every single available free agent starting pitcher. Lets just say that the Dodgers could have probably landed a pitcher ranging from Zack Greinke (for, say, 6/130 if they really wanted him) to Anibal Sanchez (5/75ish?), or Ryan Dempster (3/30?), who we all know badly wanted to go to LA at the deadline. Or they could have gone dumpster diving and are available track of another Chris Capuano type, maybe by landing a man like Francisco Liriano for $8 million on a twelve months deal.
If my wild gue s speculations here arent too much off base, then the Dodgers could have spent similar levels of money and come away with one of the different packages below:
A. Salomon Speedcross 3 CS Men Josh Hamilton (7/140), Nick Swisher (5/90), and Ryan Dempster (3/30)
B. Zack Greinke (6/130), Nick Swisher (5/90), and Mike Napoli (3/36)
C. Nick Swisher (5/90), Anibal Sanchez (5/75), and Mike Napoli (3/36), with $60 million leftover
Would any of those packages happen to be preferable to the trio that the Dodgers actually got? I believe Id go for Option A, personally, despite Hamiltons baggage. Hamilton is fairly close to Gonzalez in value, Swisher is likely much better than Crawford, and Dempster is almost certainly much better than Beckett at this time. What about you guys? Of the four potential packages, which may you've chosen, remembering to factor in that the Gonzalez/Crawford/Beckett triumvirate is the just one that would return any value before pick up, however that seemed to be the only trio which cost them five prospects, including Rubby de la Rosa and Allen Webster.
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